Prediction of Sofia Shapatava vs Federica Bilardo at W35 Santa Margherita di Pula 10-08-25

• Sofia Shapatava has a slight edge in second serve performance, winning 41.58% of points in recent form compared to Federica Bilardo's 40.20%.
• Who has the stronger return game? Data shows Shapatava excels with 49.67% success on opponents' second serves, while Bilardo trails at 37.31%.
• For first serve returns, Bilardo surpasses Shapatava, achieving 35.25% over Shapatava's 31.02%.
• Analyzing pressure handling, Shapatava saves 49.34% of breakpoints, slightly better than Bilardo's 47.62%.
• Reviewing yearly performance reveals Shapatava won 61.80% of matches, significantly more than Bilardo's 25.00% win rate.
• When considering favorite surfaces, Shapatava excels on Grass with a 67% win rate, matching Bilardo's top performance on Clay (67%).
• Shapatava plays mostly on lower-tier tournaments like Futures/Satellites, boasting a 65.31% win rate, while Bilardo's 20% win rate is on higher-level Challengers/ITF events.
• Looking at opponent quality, Shapatava has faced competitors with an average rank of 378.6 compared to Bilardo's 477.38 ranking.
• What if the match goes to a deciding set? Shapatava has won 70% of such sets recently, while Bilardo has not won any.

Editorial Prediction (October 8, 2025, UTC):

Sofia Shapatava displays notable strengths in recent form, particularly in her return game and under pressure. These factors give her an edge when breaking down her opponent's serve and maintaining composure in critical moments.

Additionally, Shapatava's overall match-win rate and ability to perform in deciding sets further highlight her competitiveness, especially when matched against Federica Bilardo's record over the past year.

Even though both players share a similar peak surface win percentage, the context of match level and opponent quality skews in Shapatava's favor, making her a strong contender to clinch the win.

Considering all factors, Sofia Shapatava is the likely winner of the upcoming tennis match.